An Ugly Example of Management Miscues Dooming the Oilers

With the Oilers 2008-2009 season coming to an all too familiar disappointing end, the fans are taking sides on where to place blame: some claim it's because of underachieving players, others put it squarely on the suspect coaching and there's the faction that says shoddy management. The reality is, of course, that they aren't mutually exclusive: they are all at fault. However, a team can't miss the playoffs three years in a row without the buck stopping with the decision makers.

Kevin Lowe may have switched offices, but he left quite the ugly footprint on this team. Chris Pronger's defection seems to have embarrassed him and forced him into panic mode. Ever since, Lowe's infatuation with luring a superstar has compromised the roster. After failing to pry Thomas Vanek from Buffalo, Lowe gave star money to a decent – but far from a superstar – player in Dustin Penner. Since signing with the Oilers, Penner has been a lightning rod for criticism; he's out of shape, he's slow, he's lazy, he got too comfortable making that kind of money, etc. Luckily, for him, starting next season he will no longer have the team's ugliest contract. That dubious distinction will belong to the de facto number one centre, Shawn Horcoff.

Of course, Lowe's Horcoff signing is in line with what is quickly becoming his trademark: vastly overvaluing a player. Since the new Collective Bargaining Agreement evened the playing field, Lowe grossly overpaid in extending aging long-time Oilers Ethan Moreau, Steve Staios and Fernando Pisani. But the Shawn Horcoff deal easily takes the cake. Lowe even went as far as calling Horcoff one of the best two-way players in the game during an interview on the Fan 590 this year.

That got me thinking…what has the guy done to garner such lofty praise? He's a good defensive forward with limited offensive ability. Call me crazy, but the best two-way players are as adept at filling the opposition net as they are at keeping it out of their own, right? Thankfully, Horcoff not-so-eloquently explained how he earned his upcoming six-year, $33 million deal (which starts after he turns 31): "I'm not going to make excuses for the contract I signed. I was one year away from free agency, coming off a good year (he racked up 22 goals and 50 points in 53 games before a bum shoulder ended his year…another red flag, but I digress…). It's not just my offensive numbers that produced that contract; it's the intangibles I bring."

Kudos on mentioning his own intangibles, this marks the first time I've ever heard of a player do that. And I certainly hope the contract is not just for his less-than-stellar offensive numbers. Check out this comparison of the careers of Horcoff and a similar player:

Horcoff: GP 558 G 119 A 216 P 335 +5 PM 366 PPG 24 SHG 5
Player: GP 617 G 144 A 226 P 366 +75 PM 359 PPG 35 SHG 8

The mystery player? Former Oiler Jochen Hecht. You know the German dude with those T-Blade skates with the circles on the blades and that make crunching noises as carves his way around the rink.

While he won't make excuses for signing his massive contract, Horcoff offered these excuses for his lousy offensive output (caused in large part by his incredible ability to fan on primo feeds at wide open nets).

""I have played in more defensive situations this year than in a long time and it is tough to create offence when you're doing that," Horcoff agreed. " You're playing against the other team's top line, you have to be wary. If you're going to do that job and do it right, you have to sacrifice offensive reads and offensive chances. I have had to take a lot of draws and play a lot of minutes on the defensive side. I have talked to Mac and he sympathized but he said his hands were tied.

"I know I am going to have to face questions about my offensive numbers and I will do that. But playing as much defence as I do, it is hard to get into that 65- to 70-point range. For the fans, I hope they will be a little understanding of the role I am in."

While his role may have changed to a more prominently defensive one, unfortunately even guys making an average of $5.5 million as defensemen can put up the 50 points Horcoff managed this year. The Oilers use Horcoff on the first unit for the powerplay and penalty kill…and both units are in the bottom third. And he's the go-to guy for virtually every key faceoff. His coach, of course, has his back…kind of. "He's on the ice all the time. It's a big inhibitor to his offense." Of course, MacTavish is the one designing the systems and tapping the guy on the shoulder to get over the boards.

I decided to look a little further into the assessment that Horcoff is one of the best two-way players in the game. I looked for the number one centre on another team playing about the same amount every night, with similar powerplay and penalty kill splits and who is used in all key situations. I even looked for a similar contract. The name I found happens to be this year's likely Selke winner, Mike Richards.

Ice Time:

Horcoff: 21:27 per game; 3:18 Short-handed; 3:47 on the Powerplay; 27.7 seconds per shift
Richards: 21.46 per game; 3:15 Short-handed; 3:19 on Powerplay; 27.3 seconds per shift

Face Offs:

Horcoff: 1724 Draws; 934 Wins; 790 Losses; 54%

Richards: 1625 Draws; 796 Wins; 829 Losses; 49%

Scoring:

Horcoff: GP 78 G 16 A 34 P 50 +5 PM 39 PPG 8 SHG 0 GWG 2 S 173
Richards: GP 77 G 30 A 49 P 79 +22 PM 61 PPG 8 SHG 7 GWG 4 S 230

Now you might say, "Wayne, Philly is a better team than Edmonton…" True. However, they are only two years removed from being an awful team who won only 22 games.

Salary:

Horcoff: 6 years, $33 million ($5.5 million cap hit)

Richards: 12 years, $69 million ($5.75 million cap hit)

Now this is where it gets tricky. Richards is six years younger than Horcoff. So, I took the time to break down the deals as best as I can to compare apples to apples: Horcoff's six years are from age 31-36. The final six years of Richards' deal from age 30-35 and his peak wage is at age 28 ($8.4 million).

Horcoff: $7 million, $6.5 million, $6.5 million, $6 million, $4 million, $3 million

Richards: $7 million, $6 million, $5.5 million, $4.5 million, $3million, $3 million

Horcoff is a nice shutdown, defensive centre. But he's obviously not in the same category as the best two-way players in the game…outside of his inflated salary of course. Oh, and do you remember those intangibles Horcoff mentioned earlier? Well, the Flyers named Richards their Captain as a 23 year old and he already holds the NHL record for most goals scored while down two men. And to think the Flyers took Mike Richards two picks after
the Oilers drafted Marc-Antoine Pouliot in 2003.

 

Sources: http://www.edmontonjournal.com/Sports/Oiltown+work+environment+forgiving+this+season/1472527/story.html