Early Season Thoughts and Theories

Well the honeymoon is over and the Oilers have fallen back to Earth after wooing us with an improbable 4-0 start. I say improbable not because they are incapable of winning streaks, but because their play from game one through game nine has been lousy. What's happening here is not a losing streak per se, but the law of averages taking effect; the team that busted out of the gates was winning with smoke and mirrors. The team that is losing looks like it's skating in a fog.

The good thing is, it's a long season and there are sure to be other peaks, and, unfortunately many valleys. That said, let me start my armchair evaluation of the good, the bad and the atrocious that is the Edmonton Oilers start.

There are a few good things to report. The big name pick-ups of the last two years are all healthy and in the lineup. The team got a lot tougher with Steve MacIntyre. Starting out 4-0, including a sweep of a home and home with the Flames really energized the fans. The new retro (that's a bit of an oxymoron, no?) uniforms look good - especially with the goaltenders sporting matching pads.

But since that fast start, the Oilers have been anything but impressive in going 0-4-1. In fact, it can be argued that outside of their wins against Calgary, the team has been far from impressive. This is a team that was touted as a highly skilled unit with offense to burn and a couple of power play bombers on the back end. And yet, here we are, watching an average of two goals a night. The defence hasn't really shut anyone down. The goaltenders, all three of them, have been okay but okay doesn't translate into a lot of wins. The forwards are giving pucks away at the blue line instead of getting it deep. Simply put, in the results-driven industry that is professional sports, the Oilers are not showing signs of being the challengers they were forecast to be.

Now, I know predictions over an 82 game season are volatile. But just as many people don't expect the team to be as good as the best case scenario predictions, nobody expected it to be this bad. Which begs the simple question: WHY are the Edmonton Oilers struggling so much?

As is usually the case in hockey, there is not one reason for the struggle and there isn't a magic bullet to cure what ails the team. No, the problems are a lot more complicated than that. As a starting point, we'll look at the lines and some tweaks that could potentially boost the club.

Erik Cole has been moved from left wing on the top line to right wing on the third line. His linemates are good players, but Ethan Moreau and Fernando Pisani are hardly offensive threats. Not to mention, the line does not have a true centre while two play on the fourth line. Kyle Brodziak was almost as effective, albeit in a quieter way, than the trio of Gagner, Cogliano, Nilsson yet he is playing far fewer minutes. The Oilers lost their best right-handed faceoff man in Jarret Stoll and Brodziak fits the bill as a player similar to Stoll. However, the Oilers have him playing few minutes with Marc Pouliot (a natural centre) and a mediocre-at-best Zach Stortini.

Now, I don't profess to know how to coach hockey at its highest level, but to use the mantra of head coach Craig MacTavish, "like minded players should play together," then it would make more sense to have two power forwards on the same line. Dustin Penner and Erik Cole would be a handful for any team down low and in front of the net. Give them a centre and the Oilers would have a dangerous line.

The third line would be much more effective with a natural centre to allow Ethan Moreau and Fernando Pisani to play their natural styles. Using either of them as a centre is about as effective as it was to use Ryan Smyth down the middle. Give centre Kyle Brodziak wingers like Moreau and Andrew Cogliano and you've got a line that has a nice balance of skill, skating ability and defensive responsibility.

The line of Robert Nilsson, Shawn Horcoff and Ales Hemsky has looked dangerous, even if the production is not there yet. Hemsky and Nilsson are dangerous together and Horcoff at the moment is the closest thing to a first line centre as this team has. He is not a natural scorer by any stretch, but those two will give him plenty of opportunity. Of course, you could drop the number one line tag and put Horcoff with the Penner and Cole duo, while using Nilsson and Hemsky with Sam Gagner or Cogliano. Where things get confusing of course, is who plays on the fourth line.

Starting the game with Pouliot between MacIntyre and Pisani is a line that gives the team options. Stortini does not give the team much in terms of play or fighting, so he should be a spare part at best. And with MacIntyre playing limited minutes, the wing he plays can be filled with any of the other wingers to get rotate through the lines and keep everyone fresh. MacIntyre's role is an important one, but his place in the lineup should not hamper his line mates ice time.

Obviously, my theories on the lines are only theories. However, with the Oilers scoring so few goals five-on-five, it couldn't hurt to try different combinations.

On the back end, the defence has been okay, but could be better. The main pairing of Souray and Vishnovsky worries me because of the issues it causes below them. They have not been an issue defensively, but the duo of Tom Gilbert and Dennis Grebeshkov, who were very effective in the latter part of last season have struggled. It would make sense to separate those two, and play Gilbert with Souray and Grebeshkov with Vishnovsky. That gives the young guys more confidence in playing with a veteran and later in the year be shifted back together.

Steve Staios, Jason Strudwick and Ladislav Smid fill the last three spots and all three have looked good as the #5, 6, and 7 defensemen on the team.

Finally, the goaltending carousel. As we all know, Dwayne Roloson was great in the 2006 Cup run. And he's had a decent start in Chicago and a good one against Boston. However, if they were going to give Deslauriers a one-way contract, and name Garon the starter, then one goalie has to be expendable. Roloson, at 39 and in the last year of his contract at a cap price of $3 million, is the logical cut. But as the Oilers do with veterans and coaches, they show too much loyalty to him. He is nine years older than Garon and 15 older than Deslauriers. He can still be great in games, but at this point is hit or miss between the pipes.